|
Bonnie Camp, frequent contributor
to the discussions on the open forum at Rick Cowle's Electrical
Utilities and Y2K website, recently wrote the following in reply
to the standard skeptical accusations and platitudes:
"My husband, after recently
learning first hand of another schedule slippage (putting the
time table for implementation into spring 2000) rather sadly
said, 'I'm a Pollyanna wanna-be. I keep looking and looking for
good reasons to offset the impacts of what I see happening, but
I'm not finding them.'
We have both been particularly sensitive to the 'can do,' 'don't
be negative,' 'American ingenuity will triumph' cheerleading
that we run across, perhaps because the study of history has
always been a serious hobby for us. While we recognize that it
is very important to try to maintain a positive outlook in almost
all areas of life, we also know that historically the great triumphs
of the human spirit (American or otherwise) have occurred during
severe difficulties and disasters, not before them. There have
been many 'potential' problem and catastrophes which should have
been, but were not, affected beforehand by any triumph of spirit.
The historical pattern for humanity is to deny danger until
it's too late to preempt it and then be forced to rely
on spirit and a can-do attitude to make up for blatant
shortsightedness.
Hitler could have been stopped before he engulfed Europe. The
big bankers/industrialists could have tempered the super charged
stock market spree of the late twenties. School additions could
have been planned before the number of students increased to
a level where there was no room for them. Social security issues
could have been dealt with years ago; the same for the government
debt load. And the Year 2000 computer problem could have been
taken care of with comparatively little expense years ago if
the collective spirit had had any foresight at all.
These are a but a tiny smattering of the huge legacy of 'could
haves' and opportunities missed that humanity has perennially
left in its wake. Instead, we tend, with hindsight, to congratulate
ourselves on our triumph of spirit after we've pulled ourselves
out of whatever messes we got ourselves into in the first
place. Many millions of people died in World War II -- but we
'triumphed.' Many people lost everything they had during the depression and others starved
to death -- but we 'triumphed.' The spiritual can-do victories
we most herald were victories, but the cost was staggering.
I cannot help
but shudder when there is any mention of Y2K which includes a
victory of the spirit or of ingenuity, American or otherwise.
The only true victory is to preempt a potential crisis long before
it ever gets to the 'problem' stage. When shortsighted stupidity
is what engenders an eventual triumph, we may be able to declare
ourselves victorious at some point, but it seems to me a pretty
hollow thing for us to then pat ourselves on the back about.
Even a small level of attendant suffering is too high a price
to pay when there could have been no price to pay at all, or
a vastly reduced price. All the 'little' Y2K disruptions even
our government admits will happen are going to be flashing Stupid
in big neon letters if we've got the eyes to see it.
In my life's
experience, humans are absolutely lousy at accomplishing preemptive
victories. The Year 2000 problem is just one more example. I
take no pleasure whatsoever in the idea of any conceptual triumph
of human spirit or good ol' American ingenuity because in my
mind that usually means we've already failed. No matter how much
fighting spirit the world shows, it's already lost the real victory
it could have had. We just hate to acknowledge that.
When it comes to Y2K,
Americans can already class themselves as damn fools. We don't
have to wait to see which group -- preparers or non-preparers
-- gets a duplicate label. If I had to make a prepare/not-to-prepare
decision, though, without any facts to go on except humanity's
record thus far, I would surely come down on the side of foresighted
preparation for potential problems. The lack of that is one of
humankind's greatest weaknesses."
---- Bonnie Camp
http://www.wbn.com/y2ktimebomb/Computech/Issues/lcore9931.htm
"Stocking just
one week's supplies. Balderdash! A story from the perspective
of experience."
http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000kue
Wisdom
from our elders who have been through hard times, as reported
by Bonnie Camp.
"Y2k and the Erosion of the Middle Ground"
http://www.energyland.com/
Essay
on conscientious risk assessment. (Go to "Year 2000",
To "Commentary," To "Guest Community," Annie
Rimmer article).
"The Ultimate Hustle"
http://www.y2ktoday.com/modules/home/default.asp?id=1288
Essay
by Ed Meagher on happy talk and journalism by press release.
" Yourdon to Greenspan: change your rhetoric, please"
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/4817
Acerbic
analysis by Gary North
"Y2k and the Year of Living Dangerously"
http://www.yourdon.com/articles/y2kdangerous.html
Ed Yourdon's
fierce essay shreds the agreed-upon three-day storm metaphor,
which seems to have been picked up as a constant figure by the
government and media without any thought behind it.
"
...So, what should we conclude about all of this? There
are only a few possible explanations for the government's determined
efforts to popularize the three-day winter snowstorm metaphor:
The
government is privy to some amazing secrets about a positive
outcome to the Y2K situation that veteran software engineers
(like me) have never heard about, and could not figure out on
their own.
The
government doesn't really know what will happen, but hopes that
a combination of edicts, mandates, orders, and the power
of positive thinking will somehow accomplish Y2K miracles that
have never happened in the software industry for the past
30 years.
The
government actually does understand that things are likely to
be far worse than publicly admitted, but has decided that it's
not a good idea to say so?" From "Y2k
and the Year of Living Dangerously."
"Will Electricity Flow In the Year 2000?"
http://www.cbn.org/newsstand/y2k/cowles.asp
An
interview With Y2K power expert Rick Cowles
GSReport: Neighborhoods and Y2k
http://www.gsreport.com/Y2K/Y2K000034.html
Washington
Post article on neighborhoods and Y2k.
"
...What I did hear from the Spokane Y2K activists were two powerful
reasons for timely neighborhood organizing:
The first
is that grassroots organizing creates community resilience --
the capacity to deal with any kind of crisis, from an ice storm
to earthquake to a prolonged power outage that might have
nothing at all to do with Y2K.
Second,
prepared neighborhoods will have a web of support for the elderly,
small children, anyone who has difficulty coping alone.
Neighbors
that know each other, that learn mutual assistance, are stronger
on every front from crime prevention to dealing with city
hall, neighborhood beautification to fending off unwelcome new
highways?" |
|
